#3: Where do we go from here? (Part One)
25 Predictions for 2025 and the Best Reads Across Web3, AI, and Beyond
Hi all,
I’ve been delayed in releasing Stern Signals due to the recent fires in Los Angeles. It’s been a challenging two weeks, with friends losing their homes, possessions, and pets. Let’s take a moment to send love and strength to everyone affected.
In this volume, I’m excited to share my 2025 predictions, marking Part One of a series titled Where Do We Go From Here? Part Two, covering my ten-year predictions, will be released on January 24, 2025—a significant date for me as it marks the 10-year anniversary of my first Bitcoin purchase.
Without further adieu, let’s dive in:
Twenty Five Predictions for 2025.
Crypto & Web3 Predictions 🔗📈
Bitcoin will hit $175,000, and Ethereum will reach $5,500 in 2025 as countries begin accumulating crypto for strategic reserves.
As trust in fiat currencies erodes, nation-states will begin accumulating Bitcoin and Ethereum as digital reserves, driven by geopolitical instability, spot ETF approvals, and the 2024 Bitcoin halving.
X (formerly Twitter) will enable crypto wallets and micropayments, realizing a major milestone in Elon Musk’s original vision for X.com.
Elon Musk’s ambition to create a financial super app will become reality in 2025.
Expect Bitcoin (via Lightning Network), Dogecoin, and stablecoins to be integrated into X, enabling global crypto payments for micropayments, tipping, and cross-border remittances.
NFTs will make a major comeback, driven by Web3 gaming and tokenization of real-world assets… but they won’t be called NFT’s.
The next wave of NFTs will focus on utility, not speculation. Expect to see real-world asset tokenization (like real estate, loans, and luxury goods) alongside in-game NFTs that allow players to own and trade digital assets.
At least one Web3-enabled game will become a smash hit in 2025.
Unlike early NFT games, which struggled with poor gameplay and unsustainable tokenomics, the next breakout hit will combine AAA production quality with blockchain functionality, creating a global cultural phenomenon.
Stablecoins will be accepted as a payment method by a major e-commerce platform.
Reminder: Stablecoin = typically pegged 1:1 to a secure reference asset like the USD.
Expect Amazon, Walmart, or another global retailer to begin accepting stablecoins like USDC or Tether for payments, offering lower fees, faster settlement times, and cross-border functionality.
A major Web3 social platform will emerge with 1 million daily active users.
As decentralized social networks like Lens Protocol and Farcaster gain traction, at least one platform will surpass 1 million daily active users, driven by creator migration from centralized platforms and tokenized incentives.
An AI-generated actor or artist will be nominated for — or win — a major award such as an Oscar or Grammy.”
By 2025, AI-generated performers will cross the threshold from supporting roles (e.g., digital doubles and CGI characters) to leading roles in film or music. A fully AI-created actor, musician, or virtual influencer will receive mainstream recognition, blurring the lines between human creativity and machine innovation.
A decentralized identity solution will become mainstream.
By 2025, decentralized identity protocols will see widespread adoption in finance, gaming, and social platforms, allowing users to control their own data and interact seamlessly across apps.
Major institutions will adopt blockchain-based credentials for access control.
By 2025, enterprises will begin to replace traditional password-based systems with secure, verifiable, and tamper-proof authentication using blockchain-based credentials, reducing reliance on centralized databases and improving security across their systems.
Global & Geopolitical Predictions 🌍📉
At least one major European country will face a sovereign debt crisis in 2025.
Countries like Italy, Spain, and France are at risk of sovereign debt crises due to mounting debt levels, slow economic growth, and reliance on ECB intervention. Italy, with a 146% debt-to-GDP ratio, is the most vulnerable.
Russia and Ukraine will reach a ceasefire in 2025, brokered by diplomatic pressure.
After years of conflict, global pressure will push Russia and Ukraine to reach a ceasefire agreement. This move will be seen as a major diplomatic success, likely led by a high-profile figure such as Donald Trump.
TikTok will be banned in the U.S., leading to a rise in decentralized creator platforms.
The U.S. government will officially ban TikTok, citing national security concerns. In response, creators will migrate to Web3 platforms like Lens Protocol and Farcaster, which offer censorship resistance, ownership, and tokenized monetization.
IPO markets will heat up in 2025, with at least five major companies going public.
After a prolonged slowdown, the IPO market will rebound, led by tech, AI, and Web3 companies. Expect higher valuations and renewed investor interest in public markets.
Waymo will surpass Uber and Lyft in both SF and LA.
Autonomous vehicles will become mainstream in Los Angeles, where infrastructure and regulations favor self-driving cars. Waymo’s robo-taxi service will become the preferred option for cost-conscious consumers.
The rise of vertically trained AI agents will put a major dent in SaaS valuations.
Custom AI agents trained on specific industries (e.g., legal, finance, healthcare) will replace generic SaaS tools, forcing SaaS companies to adapt or lose market share.
Apple will release drastic hardware updates that will catapult sales.
Expect major innovations in product design, AR/VR, health tracking (like non-invasive glucose monitoring), and wearables, sparking a new upgrade cycle across Apple’s product line.
Wildcard & Cultural Predictions 🔮
A high-profile release of Diddy and Jeffrey Epstein-related documents will lead to a major celebrity’s imprisonment.
Sealed Epstein documents will be made public, implicating high-profile individuals and leading to criminal charges against at least one major celebrity.
Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift will get engaged.
The most-talked-about couple of 2024 will take their relationship to the next level, breaking social media records with their engagement announcement.
The Buffalo Bills will win the Super Bowl.
After years of near-misses, the Bills will finally clinch their first championship, led by Josh Allen.
The New York Rangers will win the Stanley Cup.
With elite goaltending from Igor Shesterkin, the Rangers will bring the Stanley Cup back to New York.
The New York Yankees will win the World Series.
A reinvigorated Yankees squad, led by Aaron Judge, will break their championship drought and win their 28th title.
Oklahoma City will win their first NBA Championship.
With Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Chet Holmgren emerging as superstars, OKC will shock the NBA world by winning their first title.
Duke will win the 2025 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament.
After several strong seasons under Jon Scheyer, Duke’s elite recruiting class and balanced roster will lead them to their sixth national title.
Liverpool will win the Champions League.
With Jurgen Klopp’s rebuilt squad, Liverpool will reclaim European glory.
“Conclave” will win Best Picture at the Oscars.
A gripping political thriller, “Conclave” will sweep awards season and take home Best Picture.
Key Reads 🔑
Web3: The Evolution of Crypto and Blockchain
💡 AI Stablecoins: The Future of Decentralized Finance
Just as personal computers evolved by connecting to the internet, money is now undergoing a similar transformation with stablecoins and AI agents.
Stablecoins, already a $200 billion market, serve as the financial backbone for autonomous AI agents that can transact, optimize financial strategies, and make decisions without human intervention.
The article explores three phases of adoption: Human-to-Agent Transactions (Present), Agent-to-Human Transactions (Emerging), and Agent-to-Agent Transactions (Future).
🔥 The Hot Start Problem by Mason Nystrom
Mason Nystrom introduces the “hot start problem”, where startups launching with tokens must quickly find product-market fit before speculative users and liquidity fade.
He explores how token incentives can bootstrap networks in red ocean markets but warns that they often obscure organic traction in active user networks, making long-term retention challenging.
🚀 Big Ideas in Crypto for 2025 by a16z Crypto:
Andreessen Horowitz (a16z) outlines the major trends that will define the crypto landscape in 2025, including account abstraction, decentralized identity, and the rise of AI-driven protocols.
From governance improvements to AI-powered agents transacting on-chain, a16z presents a roadmap for the next wave of crypto adoption.
📄 Wyoming Senator Cynthia Lummis: ‘2025 Will Be the Year for Bitcoin and Digital Assets’:
Senator Cynthia Lummis, one of the most vocal advocates for crypto regulation in Washington, predicts that 2025 will be a pivotal year for digital assets. W
ith clearer regulatory frameworks and growing institutional interest, she believes Bitcoin and blockchain technology will finally gain the legitimacy they’ve been fighting for.
Lummis outlines how the U.S. government’s approach to crypto will evolve and why the coming year could mark a major turning point for the industry.
🍌 Inflation? Justin Sun Eats Banana He Bought for $6.2 Million:
In a symbolic move, Tron founder Justin Sun eats the $6.2 million banana from the famous artwork “Comedian,” prompting discussions on perceived value, meme culture, and how crypto shapes our understanding of worth.
🌨️ SASA: Can Dollar Liquidity Cover Disappointment?:
Arthur Hayes uses the metaphor of sasa—a dangerous, razor-sharp bamboo found in Hokkaido’s backcountry—to explore whether a massive injection of dollar liquidity can cover the “sasa” of disappointment if Trump’s pro-crypto policies fall short of expectations.
Hayes dives into the complex interplay between the Fed, the U.S. Treasury, and global liquidity, ultimately suggesting that the first quarter of 2025 will bring a positive environment for crypto. However, as always, the advice is clear: know when to “shred” and when to dial back risk.
🇹🇭 Thailand’s New Blockchain Policy: A Digital Economy Vision
Thailand is piloting Bitcoin payments for tourists in Phuket, making it easier for foreign visitors to use their digital assets for everyday purchases.
The project aims to boost convenience for crypto-savvy travelers while offering new business opportunities for local merchants. Tourists may register their Bitcoin with a Thai exchange, and a clearing house will convert it into Thai baht.
This initiative is part of a broader push to keep Thailand competitive in global tourism. The article also highlights grassroots adoption efforts in Huay Phueng village, where shops and street vendors accept Bitcoin Lightning payments. As Thailand explores crypto integration in tourism, it showcases how digital currencies could become part of everyday financial transactions in the future.
AI: Pushing the Boundaries of Innovation
🤖 AI and Crypto: How AI is Impacting the Blockchain Space by Vitalik Buterin: In this essay, Vitalik Buterin delves into the evolving intersection of AI and blockchain, exploring both the potential synergies and risks.
He highlights areas where AI can enhance blockchain functionality—such as improving scalability, privacy, and governance—but warns of the challenges that arise when autonomous AI agents interact with decentralized systems.
Buterin argues that blockchain could serve as a valuable tool for AI alignment, ensuring transparency and verifiability in AI decision-making processes.
The piece ultimately emphasizes the need for thoughtful integration to avoid governance risks and ensure that both technologies evolve responsibly.
🧬 Metagene: The Future of AI-Driven Genomics
The Metagene whitepaper explores how AI can revolutionize genomics by applying machine learning models to analyze genetic data at scale.
The paper outlines how AI can identify undetectable patterns, enabling more accurate disease predictions, personalized treatments, and faster drug discovery.
Metagene emphasizes the potential for AI agents to autonomously manage health decisions in the future, making genomic insights actionable and accessible to patients.
As the healthcare industry increasingly relies on data-driven solutions, Metagene envisions a world where AI-powered genomics leads to better preventative care and more effective treatments.
📊 AI Eats the World by Benedict Evans
Benedict Evans discusses the rapid adoption of AI technologies, such as ChatGPT, which reached 100 million users within two months, and the subsequent challenges in achieving widespread, sustained engagement.
Evans highlights the necessity for AI applications to find product-market fit and the importance of integrating AI into user-friendly tools to drive meaningful change.
He also explores the implications of AI on enterprise workflows, noting that while many companies have initiated pilot projects, full-scale deployments remain limited.
🎨TikTok Adds AI-Generated Labels to Content:
TikTok is rolling out mandatory labels for AI-generated content, aiming to enhance transparency as synthetic media becomes more prevalent on the platform. The move is part of a broader initiative to address concerns about misinformation and manipulated media.
TikTok is also partnering with the Coalition for Content Provenance and Authenticity (C2PA) to introduce digital credentials that verify the authenticity and origin of content. This innovation could set a new standard for content provenance across social media platforms, ensuring users can distinguish between human-created and AI-generated content.
Conversation Starters: Sports, Scams, and Self-Improvement
💉 2025 Plastic Surgery Trends Reflect the Rise of Tweakments
The future of cosmetic surgery lies in subtle, non-invasive tweaks rather than dramatic changes. This article explores how tweakments are shaping beauty standards in 2025.
💊 A Few Words on Healthcare by Mark Cuban
Mark Cuban discusses his vision for affordable, accessible healthcare through his pharmacy startup, emphasizing the need for transparency and fairness in drug pricing.
⛽ Galaxy Gas: The New Flavored Nitrous Oxide Drug Epidemic
This exposé dives into the rising trend of flavored nitrous oxide (also known as “Galaxy Gas”) among young people, examining its popularity, risks, and the cultural implications of this new epidemic.
🎮 Gaming Currencies and the Future of Virtual Economies
This article explores how gaming currencies are evolving into full-fledged virtual economies, with implications for both players and developers. It discusses how these digital economies could become the future of online financial systems.
📋 52 Snippets from 2024 by Snippet Finance
A collection of 52 key insights from 2024, covering everything from market trends to technological breakthroughs. This article is perfect for quick, thought-provoking takeaways.
🧩 Principles by Nabeel Qureshi
Nabeel Qureshi shares timeless principles on decision-making, navigating modern life, and achieving personal growth. His reflections offer practical wisdom for anyone striving for self-improvement.
💡 101 Additional Advices by Kevin Kelly
Kevin Kelly, founder of Wired, shares 101 practical tips and philosophical musings, from productivity hacks to life lessons. A highly shareable piece full of valuable insights.